{"id":10401,"date":"2020-03-18T11:11:32","date_gmt":"2020-03-18T16:11:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/circassiancenter.com\/tr\/?p=10401"},"modified":"2021-03-09T17:42:02","modified_gmt":"2021-03-09T23:42:02","slug":"gurcistanin-jeopolitigi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/gurcistanin-jeopolitigi\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00dcRC\u0130STAN’IN JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130\u011e\u0130"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

B\u00fclent T\u00fctmez
\n<\/strong>Evrensel Gazetesi, 23 Ekim 2001<\/p>\n

Afganistan\u2019a yap\u0131lan operasyonun \u2018de\u011fi\u015fik boyutlar\u0131yla\u2019 uzayacak olmas\u0131n\u0131n kesinle\u015fmesiyle birlikte Kafkasya\u2019da da belirgin bir hareketlenme ba\u015flad\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 11 Eyl\u00fcl \u00f6ncesi AG\u0130T arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla uzla\u015fma arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00c7e\u00e7enya (\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de iki taraf aras\u0131nda gizli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131) sorununda, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc yeniden \u2018ter\u00f6r konsepti\u2019 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde anlamland\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7e\u00e7en-Rus \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gereken Abhaz-G\u00fcrc\u00fc gerginli\u011finin de bu yeni d\u00f6nemde G\u00fcrcistan y\u00f6netimini \u2018bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131\u2019, yine son Abhaz sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve Rus tacizleriyle beraber a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Oral Sander bir makalesinde Richardson\u2019un \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Kavgalar\u0131n \u0130statisti\u011fi\u201d adl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunarak \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor: \u201c\u00dclkeleri \u00e7evreleyen s\u0131n\u0131r say\u0131s\u0131 ile, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi sorunlar aras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir korelasyon bulunmaktad\u0131r.\u201d (Sander, O., Turkish Foreign Policy, Winter-93) S\u00f6z konusu de\u011ferlendirme T\u00fcrkiye ve Afganistan gibi \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in do\u011frulan\u0131yor olsa da-; nicel olarak kom\u015fu say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda, \u2018kom\u015fular\u0131n nitelikleri ve \u00e7e\u015fitli merkezlere g\u00f6re koordinat\u2019 gibi iki parametre ile birlikte ele al\u0131nmak durumundad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte G\u00fcrcistan bu eklemeyi zorunlu k\u0131lan bir \u2018istisna\u2019 olarak konumu ve y\u00f6nelimiyle \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fcrcistan; binlerce y\u0131ll\u0131k tarihi, kendisine has dili ve \u00e7ok k\u00fclt\u00fcrl\u00fc yap\u0131s\u0131yla, Kafkasya b\u00f6lgesinde \u00f6zel bir \u00f6neme sahip. Alt\u0131n, petrol, ve do\u011falgaz gibi rezervleri bulunmayan, n\u00fckleer silahlardan yoksun bu Kafkas \u00fclkesini stratejik yapan fakt\u00f6r; G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n Hazar Havzas\u0131 ve Avrasya\u2019ya giri\u015fte, AB ve ABD\u2019ye -tabii sad\u0131k m\u00fcttefikleri ile beraber- bir kap\u0131 pozisyonunda olmas\u0131 ve Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z Devletler Toplulu\u011fu (BDT) ile NATO aras\u0131ndaki \u2018en s\u0131cak s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131\u2019 olu\u015fturmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerde artan bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve provokasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fte bu stratejik boyutla ve Afganistan\u2019a yerle\u015fme stratejisine tepki olarak okumak gerekli. Nitekim Hazar\u2019a Umman Denizi-Pakistan-Afganistan hatt\u0131yla ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacak boru hatt\u0131 projeleri, (Bu projelerin m\u00fchendislik a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olabilirli\u011fi de tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r) kuvvetle muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcnen Bak\u00fc-Ceyhan ile birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde Rusya\u2019n\u0131n tamamen \u2018devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yal\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u2019 durumda kalabilme riski belirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Me\u015fru M\u00fcdafaa konseptinin arkas\u0131na saklanan ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u2018me\u015frulu\u011funu yitirmemek\u2019 i\u00e7in pasif destekle \u2018g\u00f6zlemci\u2019 rolleri \u00fcstlenen Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, yine \u2018ter\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131 savuma retori\u011fi\u2019 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u2018hakl\u0131\u2019 oldu\u011funu savundu\u011fu (G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n da \u00c7e\u00e7enlere yatakl\u0131k etti\u011fi savunuluyor) Kafkasya\u2019da etkinli\u011fini art\u0131rmaya \u00e7abalamas\u0131 asl\u0131nda \u2018ta\u015flar\u0131 farkl\u0131 dizmeyi gerektirebilecek\u2019 bir geli\u015fme olarak \u00f6nemsenilmek durumundad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yoksul halk\u0131 ve \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki \u2018itibar\u0131 yitik\u2019 bir liderle ayakta kalmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan G\u00fcrcistan, Azerbaycan ve T\u00fcrkiye ile boru hatt\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f protokollerini karara ba\u011flad\u0131ktan sonra rahata erece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Son geli\u015fmelere haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalanan (ciddi bir istihbarat organizasyonu kalmam\u0131\u015f, kendi Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131 dahi korumaktan aciz kalan \u00fclkenin asl\u0131nda sert ve uzun s\u00fcreli bir sava\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131rabilecek askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc de mevcut de\u011fil) G\u00fcrcistan y\u00f6netimi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde diplomasi trafi\u011fini ba\u015flatarak D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Irakli Menagari\u015fvili\u2019yi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye g\u00f6nderdi. Konuk bakan ziyaretle birlikte ABD (ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cG\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc konusunda hassas\u0131z\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 yaparak, G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a sekiz helikopter verilece\u011fini beyan etti) ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin (\u0130smail Cem\u2019in \u201cyan\u0131nda olduklar\u0131\u201d mesaj\u0131yla birlikte alt\u0131 helikopter verilece\u011finin belirtilmesi – Ferai T\u0131n\u00e7, H\u00fcrriyet, 14 Ekim) a\u00e7\u0131k deste\u011fini alarak \u00fclkesine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6ncesinde \u2018provokatif ve i\u015fbirlik\u00e7i\u2019 bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yaparak Abhazya\u2019ya uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 isteyen (g\u00f6nl\u00fcnde yatan aslan NATO olmal\u0131) \u015eevardnadze\u2019nin bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce Georgetown \u00dcniversitesi\u2019ni ziyareti s\u0131ras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme ilgin\u00e7lik ta\u015f\u0131yordu. \u015eevardnadze G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n rol\u00fcn\u00fc tan\u0131mlarken; \u201c\u00dclkemiz Rusya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcneyi de\u011fil, T\u00fcrkiye ve NATO\u2019nun kuzey unsuru olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmelidir\u201d (TRT1, 14 Ekim) tespitini yapt\u0131. Bu y\u00f6nelim, y\u0131llard\u0131r vurgulanan \u00fclke siyasetinin ifadesi olmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, 11 Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma s\u00fcrecinde G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n beklentisini ortaya koymas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 \u015eevardnadze\u2019nin Putin ile gizli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bas\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131 da bir ba\u015fka y\u00f6ne dikkat etmemizi sa\u011flayan ve \u2018dan\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131 d\u00f6v\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u2019 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcren bir arg\u00fcman olarak \u00f6nemsenilmek durumundad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan Almanya ve AB\u2019nin G\u00fcrcistan \u00fczerinden Avrasya tahtas\u0131nda manevra yapabilece\u011finin i\u015faretleri de al\u0131nmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Almanya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Gerhard Schr\u00f6der\u2019in; \u201cAlmanya\u2019n\u0131n, tali bir oyuncu olmaktan ibaret olan 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 rol\u00fc kesin olarak sona ermi\u015ftir\u201d (Evrensel, 13 Ekim) \u015feklindeki tarihi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 (Schr\u00f6der bunu pratik olarak destekleyecek ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ba\u015flatarak NATO\u2019yu devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak bir Ortado\u011fu \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sinyallerini verdi) art\u0131k Almanya\u2019n\u0131n, Polonya-Ukrayna-G\u00fcrcistan k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fcyece\u011finin ifadesi olarak anla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bir aya\u011f\u0131 olmayan k\u00f6pr\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u015flevsiz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilen Almanya\u2019n\u0131n, -k\u00fcresel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olabilmesinin ko\u015fullar\u0131 bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in mevcut olmasa da- Rusya ile yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi rahatl\u0131kla birlikte orta vadede Kafkasya denklemlerine bir yerlerinden eklemlenmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n

Nihayet \u201cAB\u2019nin \u2018acil m\u00fcdahale g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn\u2019 aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda devreye al\u0131namamas\u0131n\u0131n AGSK\u2019n\u0131n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131 sonundaki yap\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeyece\u011fini\u201d belirten AB D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Temsilcisi Javier Solana\u2019n\u0131n birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Kafkasya-Ortado\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinde diplomasi y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi ise kimseye \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 gelmemelidir.<\/p>\n

Not: \u00dclkemizin ABD\u2019nin kuyru\u011funa tak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n gerek\u00e7esini belirtmekte zorlanan (NATO\u2019nun i\u015flevsizli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor) Ba\u015fbakan Ecevit ve D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Cem\u2019in \u2018dost \u00fclke\u2019 tan\u0131m\u0131 diplomatik d\u00fczeyde bir anlam ifade etmiyor. Kahve jargonuyla \u00fclke y\u00f6netmede \u00d6zal\u2019dan geri kal\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bülent Tütmez Evrensel Gazetesi, 23 Ekim 2001 Afganistan’a yapılan operasyonun ‘değişik boyutlarıyla’ uzayacak olmasının kesinleşmesiyle birlikte Kafkasya’da da belirgin bir hareketlenme başladı. Rusya’nın 11 Eylül öncesi AGİT aracılığıyla uzlaşma aradığı Çeçenya (İsviçre’de iki taraf arasında gizli görüşmeler yapılmıştı) sorununda, çözümü yeniden ‘terör konsepti’ çerçevesinde anlamlandırmaya başladığı görülüyor. Çeçen-Rus çatışmasıyla birlikte düşünülmesi gereken Abhaz-Gürcü gerginliğinin de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arastirma-ana-sayfa","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10401"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10401\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18519,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10401\/revisions\/18519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}