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Dr. Elnur Hasan Mikail \u00d6ZET ABD \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli jeostratejik konuma sahip Kafkasya b\u00f6lgesine \u00e7ok uzak bir mesafeden de olsa m\u00fcdahale etmekte ve So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u0131n bitmesine ra\u011fmen Rusya ile bu b\u00f6lgeyi payla\u015famamaktad\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin Musevi as\u0131ll\u0131 dolar milyarderi George Soros vas\u0131tas\u0131yla G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 lale devrimi sonras\u0131 iktidara Saaka\u015fvili getirilmi\u015ftir. Ard\u0131ndan G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zerk b\u00f6lge Acaristan\u2019a girmesiyle Rusya kendinin gibi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Acaristan\u2019a tanklarla girmi\u015ftir. Hatta bununla da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmam\u0131\u015f ve Batum\u2019a kadar tanklarla gelmi\u015f ve geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 Tahribata yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Maalesef ABD bu sava\u015fta G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a destek vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve olaya m\u00fcdahale ederse Rusya ile bir sava\u015f\u0131n patlak verebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle sava\u015fa m\u00fcdahale etmekten \u00e7ekinmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n G\u0130R\u0130\u015e T\u00fcrk d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f simas\u0131 diplomat ve yazarlar\u0131ndan G\u00fcnd\u00fcz Aktan ise Kafkasya\u2019n\u0131n, Sovyet sonras\u0131 kaosta tarihinin en istikrars\u0131z d\u00f6nemini ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, Rusya, \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ABD ve AB m\u00fcdahalesine sahne oldu\u011funu; b\u00f6lgenin jeostratejik \u00f6nemi yan\u0131nda \u00e7ok tehlikeli olaylara da gebe oldu\u011funu ifade etmi\u015fti.(2)<\/p>\n Avrasya tarihinin ge\u00e7i\u015f co\u011frafyas\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6neme sahip olan Kafkas co\u011frafyas\u0131, Rus \u00c7arl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Avrasya\u2019da 300 y\u0131l s\u00fcren ilerlemesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda 19. Y\u00fczy\u0131lda Rus Ordular\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fgal edilmi\u015f bir b\u00f6lgedir. \u00c7arl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Kafkas halklar\u0131 k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131na kavu\u015fmu\u015f iseler de K\u0131z\u0131lordu olarak geri d\u00f6nen Rus g\u00fcc\u00fc 1990\u2019a kadar Kafkas halklar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ellerinden al\u0131rken, Kafkasya\u2019n\u0131n jeopolitik \u00f6nemini K\u0131z\u0131lordu\u2019nun T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in konu\u015fland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ordular co\u011frafyas\u0131na indirgemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n Sovyetler Birli\u011finin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ile birlikte Kafkasya, d\u00fcnya jeopoliti\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yapm\u0131\u015f, d\u00fcnya siyasetinde \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6r haline gelmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran \u00f6zellikle G\u00fcney Kafkasya\u2019da etkili olma m\u00fccadelesi verirken, Rusya da 1990\u2019larda Kuzey Kafkasya\u2019da tutunmak i\u00e7in sava\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2000\u2019lerde Kuzey Kafkasya\u2019daki konumunu sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131ran Moskova\u2019n\u0131n tekrar g\u00fcney Kafkasya\u2019ya inmek i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi g\u00f6zlemlenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n Sovyetlerin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 takip eden ilk y\u0131llarda bu co\u011frafya ABD\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f politika \u00f6ncelikleri aras\u0131nda de\u011fildi. ABD, b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6lgedeki enerji kaynaklar\u0131 merkezli tan\u0131mlamaktayd\u0131. 1990\u2019lar\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren bu durum de\u011fi\u015fmeye ve ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131nda jeopolitik unsurlar \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin politikas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin, Azerbaycan ve G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n Rus n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131ndan uzakla\u015f\u0131p ve Bat\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc politikalar izleme istekleri ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmesi sonucu, ili\u015fkilerin yo\u011funlu\u011funda ve yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 1990\u2019lar\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(3)<\/p>\n Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te birka\u00e7 d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na tan\u0131k olunmaktad\u0131r. 11 Eyl\u00fcl ve devam\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen Afganistan operasyonu bunlardan birisidir. Bu d\u00f6nemde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 say\u0131da da olsa Amerikan askeri G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a g\u00f6nderilmi\u015ftir. Ard\u0131ndan da hem G\u00fcrcistan\u2019la hem de Azerbaycan\u2019la askeri ili\u015fkiler belirgin bir \u015fekilde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu konudaki tart\u0131\u015fmalar ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya\u2019da askeri \u00fcs edinmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda yo\u011funla\u015fmaktad\u0131r.(4)<\/p>\n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n A\u011fustos 2008\u2019de G\u00fcrcistan ile sava\u015f\u0131 ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya politikas\u0131na a\u011f\u0131r bir darbe indirirken, Moskova\u2019n\u0131n konumunu 1991\u2019den bu yana hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir. Ancak Kafkaslarda m\u00fccadele h\u00e2l\u00e2 bitmi\u015f de\u011fildir. Ve netice daha uzun s\u00fcre belli olaca\u011fa benzememektedir. Yine de Ukrayna\u2019da Moskova yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin demokratik se\u00e7imlerle i\u015fba\u015f\u0131na gelmesi, T\u00fcrkmenba\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir suikasta kurban gitmesinden sonra Moskova\u2019n\u0131n bu \u00fclkedeki konumunun sa\u011flamla\u015fmas\u0131 ve nihayet Nisan 2010 ba\u015f\u0131nda K\u0131rg\u0131zistan\u2019da Rusya yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir y\u00f6netimin olu\u015fmas\u0131na, ABD\u2019nin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki Ankara\u2019n\u0131n izledi\u011fi yanl\u0131\u015f Ermenistan politikas\u0131n\u0131n Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131 Rusya\u2019ya yakla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, Moskova\u2019y\u0131 rahatlatmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n ABD\u2019N\u0130N KAFKASYA POL\u0130T\u0130KASI: ARAYI\u015eLAR VE KARMA\u015eALAR B\u00dcT\u00dcN\u00dc 1991-1995: Bu d\u00f6nemin temel \u00f6zelli\u011fi ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik Moskova merkezli politika \u00fcretmesidir.<\/p>\n 1995-2001: ABD\u2019nin yeni ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z cumhuriyetlere \u00f6ncelik tan\u0131mas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilerde yak\u0131nl\u0131k ve geli\u015fme ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n 2001- : ABD daha aktif politika izlemeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(5)<\/p>\n \u0130lk d\u00f6nemde ABD \u201c\u00d6nce Rusya\u201d politikas\u0131 uygulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu politikaya g\u00f6re; Kafkasya ile, Moskova \u00fczerinden ili\u015fki kurulmas\u0131 tercih edilmi\u015ftir. Bunun en \u00f6nemli nedeni Rusya Federasyonu\u2019nun uluslararas\u0131 sisteme entegre edilmesi ve b\u00f6ylece g\u00fcven alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamakt\u0131r. Bu anlamda Rusya Federasyonu\u2019nun 1993 y\u0131l\u0131nda benimsedi\u011fi \u201cyak\u0131n \u00e7evre doktrini\u201d ABD taraf\u0131ndan da kabul edilerek; Rusya ile ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131 paralellik g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n 1995\u2019ten itibaren de\u011fi\u015fen jeopolitik ortam, ABD\u2019nin de d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesine imk\u00e2n vermi\u015ftir. ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya ve Orta Asya\u2019y\u0131 \u201cstratejik hayati b\u00f6lge\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlamas\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n tepkisine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve Rusya k\u00fcresel politikada Amerikan kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 bir \u00e7izgiye yer vermeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunun i\u00e7in de Avrasya-ABD kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 bir koalisyondan olu\u015fan kar\u015f\u0131 ittifak stratejisine y\u00f6nelmi\u015ftir. \u00d6zellikle \u00c7e\u00e7enistan Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra Moskova\u2019n\u0131n zafiyetinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD, Kafkasya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda daha aktif olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(6) 11 Eyl\u00fcl s\u00fcreciyle d\u00fcnyada yeni bir durumun olu\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte ABD, bu yeni konjonkt\u00fcrden yararlanarak Kafkasya ile daha yak\u0131ndan ilgilenmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ilgisinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck nedeni de ABD\u2019de bask\u0131n olan Ermeni lobisine dayanmaktayd\u0131. G\u00fcrcistan ile de ili\u015fkiler ilerletilmi\u015ftir. Ter\u00f6rizmle m\u00fccadele \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde 2000 G\u00fcrc\u00fc askerin e\u011fitilmesini hedefleyen 21 ayl\u0131k G\u00fcrcistan E\u011fitim ve Donan\u0131m Program\u0131 ba\u015flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.(8) 11 Eyl\u00fcl s\u00fcreciyle ba\u015flayan yeni uluslararas\u0131 arenada ABD; Kafkasya\u2019da daha etkin olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve bu programlarla etkinli\u011fini Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye devam etmi\u015ftir. ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirebilmesi i\u00e7in Kafkasya\u2019da var olmas\u0131 gerekmektedir ve bunun bilincinde olarak d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 bu amaca uygun geli\u015ftirmektedir. (9)<\/p>\n ABD\u2019N\u0130N ERMEN\u0130 \/ G\u00dcRC\u00dc YANLISI-AZERBAYCAN KAR\u015eITI POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI ABD, ambargo s\u00fcresince Ermenistan ve G\u00fcrcistan’a y\u0131lda 1 milyar dolara yak\u0131n yard\u0131m yaparken Azerbaycan’\u0131 hep d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tuttu. Dolays\u0131yla Azerbaycan, Ermeni Lobisinin bu ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 say\u0131labilecek 907 no\u2019lu karar\u0131 sayesinde neredeyse 1993 y\u0131l\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar ge\u00e7en 8 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda en az 20 milyar ABD Dolar\u0131 zararl\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k i\u015fgalci Ermenistan yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyar k\u00e2rl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. Yani Azerbaycan ekonomik alanda Ermeni lobisinin adaletsiz zaferi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden Ermenistan Devletine nispeten 20 senede en az 40 milyar dolar zararl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. Bu miktar Azerbaycan gibi \u201cSovyet emperyalizmi\u201dnden yeni kurtulmu\u015f \u00fclke i\u00e7in az miktar de\u011fildir. \u00dcstelik Ermenistan, ABD yerine Rusya yanl\u0131s\u0131 politikalar tercih ederken, Azerbaycan ABD ve Bat\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 politikalar takip etmi\u015fti. Ermeni lobisi \u015fimdi, Azerbaycan’a askeri yard\u0131m\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7an yeni Senato karar\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yor. (12)<\/p>\n RUS-G\u00dcRC\u00dc SAVA\u015eININ STRATEJ\u0130K ETK\u0130LER\u0130 Yerel d\u00fczeyde ise Sovyetler\u2019in da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z devlet olarak tan\u0131nma trenini ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7erisinde m\u00fclahaza edilmi\u015f iki cumhuriyet yer al\u0131yor: G\u00fcney Osetya ve Abhazya. Tarihsel bir \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k olarak G\u00fcrc\u00fc as\u0131ll\u0131 Sovyet diktat\u00f6r\u00fc Joseph Stalin\u2019in G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a arma\u011fan etti\u011fi Abhazya ve G\u00fcney Osetya, 1990\u2019lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki G\u00fcrc\u00fc istilas\u0131n\u0131 atlatt\u0131ktan sonra ambargolara ra\u011fmen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k \u00e7izgisinden kopmad\u0131. Abhazya, G\u00fcrc\u00fc sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Korkun\u00e7 \u0130van ve Deli Petro\u2019dan beri Kafkasya\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f cellad\u0131 Rusya\u2019ya mahkum etti\u011fi bir \u00fclke. G\u00fcney Osetya ise Kafkas s\u0131rada\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6te yakas\u0131nda yer alan Kuzey Osetya ile bir g\u00fcn birle\u015fme \u00fcmidiyle \u201cde facto\u201d ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hazz\u0131n\u0131 bile duyamam\u0131\u015f bir diyar.<\/p>\n SAVA\u015eTA KAYBEDENLER: ABD VE T\u00dcRK\u0130YE M\u0130? Afganistan ve Irak\u2019ta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 ya\u015faman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde \u201ck\u00fcresel ekonomik kriz\u201din \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131 olan ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya politikas\u0131 G\u00fcrcistan i\u00e7inde ilerleyen Rus tanklar\u0131n\u0131n paletleri alt\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. \u00dcstelik Ankara, sava\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda ve sonras\u0131nda Amerikan sava\u015f gemilerinin Karadeniz\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na k\u0131s\u0131tlama getirirken, Rus ve T\u00fcrk Deniz Kuvvetleri Komutanlar\u0131 Karadeniz\u2019de toplant\u0131 halindeydiler.<\/p>\n Bush y\u00f6netimi, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde Kafkasya sahnesini ancak kenardan izlemekle yetinebiliyordu; yapabildi\u011fi tek \u015fey Kongre\u2019nin finanse etti\u011fi \u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck Radyosu ile milletler hapishanesine \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck idealleri satmak ve Aleksander Soljenitsin gibi son nefesini Putincilik yaparak vermi\u015f muhaliflere kucak a\u00e7makt\u0131. (13)<\/p>\n ABD, ANKARA \u0130LE ER\u0130VAN ARASINDA YAKINLA\u015eMA \u0130ST\u0130YOR<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Ermeni Anayasa Mahkemesi taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131nan karar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ile Ermenistan aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131nla\u015fma s\u00fcrecini tehlikeye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunarak, karar\u0131n d\u00fczeltilmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Obama\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ziyaretinden bu yana, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ermenistan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve Azerbaycan y\u00f6netiminin rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndemdeki yerini koruyor. Uzmanlar, geli\u015fmenin b\u00f6lgedeki muhtemel etkilerini yorumlad\u0131lar. Ankara \u00dcniversitesi`nden Prof. Dr. \u00c7a\u011fr\u0131 Erhan ve Uluslararas\u0131 Stratejik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Kurumu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Sedat La\u00e7iner, konuyu H\u00fcseyin Hayatsever`e de\u011ferlendirdiler.<\/p>\n Ankara \u00dcniversitesi Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyesi Prof. Dr. \u00c7a\u011fr\u0131 Erhan, T\u00fcrkiye ile Azerbaycan aras\u0131nda kamu diplomasisinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u015f\u00f6yle dikkat \u00e7ekti: Azerbaycan\u2019la ili\u015fkiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu konuyu bir kamu diplomasisi fiyaskosu olarak de\u011ferlendiriyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu t\u00fcr \u00f6nemli konularda hala aradan 15 g\u00fcn ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ve Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n defalarca Karaba\u011f sorunu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeden ve Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n r\u0131zas\u0131 al\u0131nmadan b\u00f6yle bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m yap\u0131lmayacak g\u00fcvencesini vermesine ra\u011fmen Azerbaycan`da ve T\u00fcrk kamuoyunda bu denli b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hassasiyet varsa, demek ki T\u00fcrkiye bunun kamu diplomasisi baca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iyi y\u00fcr\u00fctemiyor demektir. Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z de\u011fil, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n nas\u0131l alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde.<\/p>\n Erhan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Ermenistan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7arak yap\u0131c\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekti\u011fini belirtti: Bu yaz aylar\u0131nda Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n da d\u00e2hil olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yoluyla belki Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da arabuluculu\u011fuyla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Azerbaycan-Ermenistan aras\u0131ndaki sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir noktaya getirmesi -ki zaten uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r kapal\u0131 kap\u0131lar ard\u0131nda devam eden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde bir noktaya gelinmi\u015fti- Karaba\u011f sorununda. Ama bu sonbahar aylar\u0131na do\u011fru Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n bu sefer r\u0131zas\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00f6nl\u00fcn\u00fc de alarak bu kap\u0131y\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131 gerekiyor. En az\u0131ndan bu noktada somut bir ad\u0131m\u0131 ortaya koymas\u0131 gerekiyor. (14)<\/p>\n Rusya bu konuyu kullanarak Azerbaycan`\u0131 kendi etki alan\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Azerbaycan`\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den kopart\u0131lmas\u0131 demek, bu \u00fclkenin Amerika\u2019dan, Bat\u0131\u2019dan kopart\u0131lmas\u0131 demek. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n son derece a\u00e7\u0131k tahriklerine maruz bulunan Azerbaycan kamuoyunda T\u00fcrkiye aleyhtar\u0131 birtak\u0131m yaz\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenirdi, beklenmeliydi ve bunun \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc alacak birtak\u0131m ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmal\u0131yd\u0131. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm? \u00c7ok basit bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc var bunun. Kalkars\u0131n\u0131z Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131, Ba\u015fbakan, yanlar\u0131na Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131 da al\u0131rlar, beraber bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f en \u00fcst d\u00fczey geziyi Bak\u00fc\u2019ye yaparlar. Yani Aliyev\u2019le Abdullah G\u00fcl kucakla\u015f\u0131rlar, bundan sonra ne Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ne ba\u015fka birinin etkisi olmaz bu i\u015fte ve bu i\u015f burada biter. Ben Aliyev`in de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 \u00f6yle Bat\u0131 d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fmay\u0131, Rusya`n\u0131n etkisi alt\u0131na girmeyi \u00e7ok arzu etti\u011fini zannetmiyorum.<\/p>\n \u00d6te yandan, T\u00fcrk D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ile Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin arabuluculu\u011funda yapt\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde somut ilerlemeler kaydedildi\u011fini duyurdu. Bakanl\u0131ktan yap\u0131lan yaz\u0131l\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015ftirilmesi yolunda kapsaml\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00fczerinde anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir yol haritas\u0131 belirlendi\u011fi ifade edildi. Bunun \u00fczerine Azerbaycan D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, her \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkilerinde kendi politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirleme hakk\u0131na sayg\u0131 duyduklar\u0131n\u0131, ancak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinin, Ankara-Erivan aras\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin Da\u011fl\u0131k Karaba\u011f\u2019\u0131n i\u015fgalinin sona ermesiyle paralel y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler s\u00fcrerken Azerbaycan Savunma Bakan\u0131 Korgeneral Sefer Abiyev`in, T\u00fcrkiye`ye gelece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Abiyev\u2019in temaslar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ermenistan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n da g\u00fcndeme gelmesi bekleniyor. (15)<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye ve Ermenistan aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131nla\u015fma s\u00fcreci, Bat\u0131 bas\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndemindeki yerini koruyor. \u0130ngiliz The Guardian gazetesinde yay\u0131mlanan bir yorum yaz\u0131s\u0131nda, “Bu yak\u0131nla\u015fma tabular\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131p, T\u00fcrkiye’nin AB \u00fcyeli\u011fi s\u00fcrecini kolayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir” denildi. (16)<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Davuto\u011flu da Ermeni meslekta\u015f\u0131 Nalbandyan’a telefon a\u00e7arak, T\u00fcrkiye’nin bu durumdan duydu\u011fu rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 iletti. (17) Ankara ile Erivan, A\u011fustos 2009’da imzalanan bir protokolle diplomatik ili\u015fkilerin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015ftirilmesi konusunda uzla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Uzla\u015fma, 1993’ten bu yana kapal\u0131 olan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da kaps\u0131yordu. Bunun, protokol\u00fcn iki \u00fclke parlamentolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan onaylanmas\u0131ndan iki ay sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Ancak \u015fimdiye kadar bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fi gibi son geli\u015fme de \u00e7ok say\u0131da soru i\u015fareti i\u00e7eren onaylamay\u0131 daha da imk\u00e2ns\u0131z h\u00e2le getiriyor. Erivan’daki h\u00e2kimler ger\u00e7i 12 Ocakta a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131klar\u0131 kararda protokollerin Anayasa’ya uygun oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015flar, ancak \u00f6nemli k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar getirmi\u015flerdi. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Ankara’n\u0131n giri\u015fimiyle kurulmas\u0131 planlanan, 1915’teki Ermenilere y\u00f6nelik kitle katliam\u0131n\u0131 incelemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen komisyonun, protokollerde form\u00fcle edildi\u011fi gibi, “Tarih\u00ee kaynak ve ar\u015fivleri tarafs\u0131z bilimsel incelemesi”nin s\u00f6z konusu olamayaca\u011f\u0131, zira Ermenilerin olaylarla ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn sabit oldu\u011fu, Komisyon\u2019un g\u00f6revinin sadece Ermenilere y\u00f6nelik soyk\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fcnya genelinde tan\u0131tmak olabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Kararda ayr\u0131ca, Ankara a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye’nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc tehdit eden k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar yer al\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan bir a\u00e7\u0131klamada, al\u0131nan karar\u0131n protokollerin “ruhunu ve lafz\u0131n\u0131” \u015f\u00fcpheye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve yak\u0131nla\u015fma i\u00e7in “kabul edilmez \u00f6n ko\u015fullar” dayatt\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu \u015fekilde s\u00fcrecin tamam\u0131n\u0131n sorguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Ermenistan’\u0131n Bak\u00fc ile ya\u015fanan ihtilafta taviz vermemesi, bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle Ermeni birliklerinin devletler hukukuna g\u00f6re Azerbaycan’a ait topraklardan geri \u00e7ekilmemesi h\u00e2linde s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Erdo\u011fan defalarca dile getirmi\u015fti. Ba\u015fbakan, aksi takdirde kendi partisinin baz\u0131 kesimleriyle sorun ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de bu talepte bulunuyor. (18)<\/p>\n 10 Ekim 2009\u2019da Z\u00fcrih\u2019te imzalanan T\u00fcrkiye-Ermenistan Protokolleri ile ilgili Ermenistan Anayasa Mahkemesi\u2019nin gerek\u00e7eli karar\u0131 \u00fczerine tart\u0131\u015fmalar devam etmektedir. S\u00fcrecin sona erece\u011fi izlenimi daha a\u011f\u0131r basmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131nla\u015fma projesinin mimari ABD ise bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirmekte kararl\u0131d\u0131r. (19)<\/p>\n Ermenistan’\u0131n eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Levon Ter-Petrosyan’\u0131n d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapm\u0131\u015f olan tarih\u00e7i Gerard Libaridian \u015fimdi Michigan \u00dcniversitesi’nde Ermeni \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 Program\u0131’n\u0131n direkt\u00f6r\u00fc. T\u00fcrkiye ile Ermenistan aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131nla\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin k\u0131sa vadeli \u00e7\u0131karlara kurban edildi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen Libaridian, hem Ankara’n\u0131n hem de Erivan’\u0131n bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te yanl\u0131\u015f hesap yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nda. Libaridian’a g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye’nin tarih komisyonu \u00f6nerisiyle Ermeni soyk\u0131r\u0131m savlar\u0131n\u0131 durduraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi kendini kand\u0131rmaktan ba\u015fka bir \u015fey de\u011fil. Da\u011fl\u0131k Karaba\u011f sorununun ABD’nin telkinlerine kar\u015f\u0131n iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen Libaridian, bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te Rusya’n\u0131n daha etkin bir rol oynayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. (20)<\/p>\n ABD\u2019N\u0130N SON \u0130K\u0130 YILDA G\u00dcRC\u0130STAN\u2019A Y\u00d6NEL\u0130K POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI Washington\u2019daki muhafazak\u00e2r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Hudson Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Avrasya Politikas\u0131 Merkezi direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Zeyno Baran, olaylar\u0131n, Nisan ay\u0131nda B\u00fckre\u015f\u2019teki NATO toplant\u0131s\u0131nda G\u00fcrc\u00fclerin NATO \u00fcyeli\u011fi yolunun a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Baran, Rus liderlerin, G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n NATO \u00fcyeli\u011finin kabul edilemez oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekti ve bu nedenle Almanya gibi \u00fclkelerin, G\u00fcney Osetya ve Abhazya meselesi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeden G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n NATO \u00fcyeli\u011fi konusunda ad\u0131m atmada isteksizlik sergiledi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Abhazya b\u00f6lgesine asker g\u00f6nderdi\u011fini ve birka\u00e7 kez G\u00fcrc\u00fc hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 ihlal etti\u011fini belirten Baran, Abhazya konusunda Washington\u2019\u0131n, G\u00fcrc\u00fclerin yan\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Temmuzdan beri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n devam etti\u011fini belirten Baran, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n asker g\u00f6ndermeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla i\u015fin boyutunun de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ifade etti. Baran, \u201cRuslar g\u00f6rd\u00fc ki, ne Bat\u0131 somut bir \u015fey yap\u0131yor, ne de G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131 provoke edebiliyor, o y\u00fczden k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgiyi ge\u00e7tiler. Bir s\u00fcredir b\u00f6yle bir durumun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyordu, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Ruslar G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131 provoke etmek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok u\u011fra\u015ft\u0131. Bu mesele Abhazya\u2019ya da uzanacakt\u0131r\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n RUSYA MI KAZANACAK , ABD M\u0130? SONU\u00c7 ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya gibi \u00f6nemli jeostratejik konuma sahip bir b\u00f6lgede at ko\u015fturmak istemesi Kafkasya\u2019n\u0131n Rus kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 istemesinden kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. Son G\u00fcrcistan sava\u015f\u0131nda ABD, NATO \u00fcyesi olarak almak istedi\u011fi G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 arenada yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu da ABD\u2019nin nas\u0131l bir d\u0131\u015f politika y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve herkesle istedi\u011fi \u015fekilde oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya kan\u0131tlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n <\/span>D\u0130PNOTLAR: Dr. Elnur Hasan Mikail TYB Konya Şubesi Üyesi, Uluslararası İlişkiler Uzmanı, TURAN-SAM Kurucusu ve Onursal Başkanı, Selçuk Üniversitesi ÖZET Bu çalışmada SSCB’nin parçalanması sonrası dönemde ABD’nin Kafkasya politikasının tarihi irdelenmiştir. ABD ile Rusya’nın Sovyetlerin parçalanması sonrası dönemde Kafkasya’yı bir türlü paylaşamamaları ve bunun için ABD’nin Kafkasya’ya yönelik ne gibi politikalar ürettiği araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın başlangıcında ABD’nin 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\n<\/b><\/span>TYB Konya \u015eubesi \u00dcyesi, Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler Uzman\u0131,
\nTURAN-SAM Kurucusu ve Onursal Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Sel\u00e7uk \u00dcniversitesi<\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\nBu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada SSCB\u2019nin par\u00e7alanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya politikas\u0131n\u0131n tarihi irdelenmi\u015ftir. ABD ile Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Sovyetlerin par\u00e7alanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Kafkasya\u2019y\u0131 bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc payla\u015famamalar\u0131 ve bunun i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin Kafkasya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik ne gibi politikalar \u00fcretti\u011fi ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik politikalar\u0131, sonlar\u0131nda ise Rusya-G\u00fcrcistan sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n cereyan etti\u011fi d\u00f6nem incelenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\nAzerbaycan\u2019\u0131n me\u015fhur tarih\u00e7ilerinden Ziya B\u00fcnyadov, SSCB\u2019nin par\u00e7alanmas\u0131n\u0131n arifesinde Kafkasya jeopoliti\u011fi ile ilgili olarak \u201cT\u00fcrkiye’nin jeopolitik \u00f6nemini anlatmaya gerek yok, bunu Napolyon bile belirtmi\u015fti. Ama, bu g\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli jeostratejik b\u00f6lge Kafkasya’d\u0131r. Ufac\u0131k bir toprak par\u00e7as\u0131nda (450.000 km2) \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir m\u00fccadele veriliyor. Tarihte en \u00e7ok kan d\u00f6k\u00fclen b\u00f6lge buras\u0131d\u0131r. Kafkasyal\u0131lar, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00e7ok ac\u0131 \u00e7eken halk\u0131d\u0131r\u201d demekteydi. (1)<\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\nBrzezinski, ABD\u2019nin SSCB\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden sonra Kafkasya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik politikalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00f6neme ay\u0131rmak gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektedir. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00f6nem s\u0131ras\u0131 ile \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/p>\n
\nABD’nin G\u00fcney Kafkasya’ya “senin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn benim milli \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131md\u0131r” \u015feklinde kesin bir beyanla G\u00fcrcistan’a destek oldu\u011funu, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir diasporas\u0131 olan Ermenistan ile muazzam kaynaklara sahip olan Azerbaycan’\u0131 kimseye yedirmeye niyetli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i G\u00fcnd\u00fcz Aktan, Kuzey Kafkasya konusunda ise, g\u00fcneyi etkileyecek bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131ktan uzak durmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir yakla\u015f\u0131m bulundu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. (7)<\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\nABD, 1993 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana Azerbaycan’a uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilgin\u00e7 bir ambargoyu 2004 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131nda kald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in giri\u015fim ba\u015flatt\u0131. Amerikan Kongresi\u2019nin 907 no’lu ambargo karar\u0131, Azerbaycan’\u0131n Yukar\u0131 Karaba\u011f’daki Ermeni isyanc\u0131lara uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 abluka sebebi ile al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD’deki Ermeni lobisinin ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131ndan birisi olan bu karar, Karaba\u011f\u2019a ambargo kalkmad\u0131k\u00e7a Azerbaycan’a da ambargo uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. 907 no’ lu karar, topraklar\u0131n\u0131n be\u015fte biri Ermeni i\u015fgali alt\u0131nda bulunan Azerbaycan’\u0131 bir bak\u0131ma cezaland\u0131r\u0131yordu. 11 Eyl\u00fcl sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 ABD’nin de\u011fi\u015fen d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 ve y\u00f6netimdeki petrolc\u00fcler (10), 2004 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131nda bu karar\u0131n ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli rol oynad\u0131lar. (11)<\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\n7 A\u011fustos 2008 tarihi, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri kadar k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da tarihsel bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00fcrc\u00fc-Oset ya da G\u00fcrc\u00fc-Abhaz \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst perdedeki akt\u00f6rlerinin Rusya ve ABD oldu\u011fundan ku\u015fku yok. Bir de yedekteki akt\u00f6rler var: Amerikan projelerinin ta\u015feronlu\u011funu \u00fcstlenmi\u015f T\u00fcrkiye ve Ukrayna. Tabii bir de ABD\u2019yi de y\u00f6nlendiren \u0130srail… Rusya ise b\u00f6lgenin b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u011fabeyi olarak tek ba\u015f\u0131na akt\u00f6r. Tarihte Kafkasya ile ilgilenmi\u015f olan \u0130ran ise son d\u00f6nemde ilgisini Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan\u2019la s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme d\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\n7 A\u011fustos, Kafkasya\u2019da uluslararas\u0131 sistemin fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131rdatt\u0131; G\u00fcrcistan, Abhazya ve G\u00fcney Osetya\u2019da 1991\u2019de kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ebediyen kaybetmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnen Rusya, Boris Yeltsin\u2019in \u201cG\u00f6t\u00fcrebildi\u011finiz kadar \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck al\u0131n.\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fcyle kendi haline b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kafkasya\u2019daki emperyal vizyonuna yeniden sar\u0131ld\u0131. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczlemde ise Rusya, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemindeki etkinli\u011fine kavu\u015fmasa da d\u00fcnya politikalar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen \u201cakt\u00f6r\u201d konumuna geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\nRus-G\u00fcrc\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 Ermenistan\u2019\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f, d\u0131\u015f ticaretini olumsuz etkilemi\u015ftir. (21)
\nG\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n G\u00fcney Osetya b\u00f6lgesinde ba\u015flayan ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Tiflis\u2019i bombalamas\u0131na varan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Washington\u2019daki g\u00f6zlemciler, ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n, G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n NATO \u00fcyeli\u011fi yoluna girmesinden ho\u015fnutsuz olan Rusya\u2019dan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015fliyor.<\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\nRusya\u2019n\u0131n NATO\u2019yu b\u00f6lmek istedi\u011fini ve bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yapt\u0131klar\u0131yla \u201cg\u00f6z korkutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d savunan Baran, b\u00f6lgeden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Azeri ve T\u00fcrkmenlerin, \u201cBakal\u0131m Rusya m\u0131 kazanacak ABD mi?\u201d dedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Baran, \u201cRusya G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da kaybetmek istemeyecektir. O y\u00fczden Tiflis\u2019i bombalayacak kadar ileri gittiler\u201d dedi. ABD\u2019nin ne kadar ileri gidebilece\u011fini tahmin etmenin g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu belirten Baran, \u201cRusya\u2019ya \u2018dur\u2019 demezse bunun ciddi yank\u0131lar\u0131 olacak. BM\u2019de acil toplant\u0131lar yap\u0131l\u0131yor\u201d dedi.
\nG\u00fcrcistan Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Saaka\u015fvili\u2019nin Amerikan halk\u0131na \u201c\u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck ve demokrasiyi se\u00e7tik. Onun i\u00e7in cezaland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yoruz. ABD bize yard\u0131m etmeli\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan Baran, \u201cABD \u015fimdi bir \u015fey yapmazsa, Orta Asya\u2019da, Azerbaycan\u2019daki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 tehlikeye girer. Rusya, \u0130ran dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ve Irak\u2019ta da eli s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede aktif bir \u015fey yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaba katmad\u0131. \u2018Cevap vermez\u2019 diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131.
\nABD\u2019N\u0130N KAFKASYA\u2019DA RUSYA\u2019YI DURDURMAK \u0130\u00c7\u0130N POL\u0130T\u0130KASI
\nBat\u0131, Saaka\u015fvili i\u00e7in Rusya\u2019yla sava\u015fmaz. D\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Konseyi (CFR) uzman\u0131 Jeffrey Mankoff, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 eylemden sonra Saaka\u015fvili\u2019yi kurtarmak i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011fini sanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Mankoff, \u201cBat\u0131, Saaka\u015fvili i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015fmayacak\u201d dedi. Brookings Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn uzman\u0131 Steven Pifer da, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a m\u00fcdahalesindeki temel g\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fcn, ABD\u2019nin Orta Avrupa\u2019ya kurmak istedi\u011fi f\u00fcze savunma sisteminden kaynaklanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve esas sebebin, G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n askeri y\u00f6ntemlerle istedi\u011fini elde edemeyece\u011fini g\u00f6stermek oldu\u011funu savundu.<\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
\nABD So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u0131 kazand\u0131ktan sonra iki kutuplu d\u00fcnya son bulmu\u015ftur. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yeni sistem tek s\u00fcper g\u00fcc\u00fcn ABD oldu\u011fu yeni bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Rusya art\u0131k bug\u00fcn n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 koyabilecek g\u00fcce sahip de\u011fildir. Bu askeri veya istihbarat alan\u0131nda, isterse de ekonomik alanda bu \u015fekildedir. N\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 konusunda ise de\u011fi\u015fik d\u00fcnya dengeleri mevcuttur. \u00d6rne\u011fin M\u00fcsl\u00fcman d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n tek n\u00fckleer g\u00fcc\u00fc olan Pakistan\u2019\u0131n bile ba\u015f\u0131na bug\u00fcn ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7e\u015fitli oyunlar getirilmektedir ve bu olaylarla Pakistan y\u00f6netimi bazen ba\u015f edememektedir. Rusya da 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan beri ABD\u2019ye rakip n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 ama bug\u00fcn Rusya ekonomisi 2 trilyon Amerikan Dolar\u0131yken ABD\u2019nin Milli Geliri 15 trilyon Dolarlara dayanmaktad\u0131r. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfusu 150 milyon, ABD\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu ise 300 milyondur. Bu da bize Amerikan ekonomisinin bug\u00fcn Rusya ekonomisinden nerdeyse 3 kat b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu anlatmaktad\u0131r. Putin d\u00f6nemi Rusya\u2019s\u0131nda Rusya d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131 kapatt\u0131 ve Rus ekonomisini 5 kat b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. Buna ra\u011fmen \u00fclkede bug\u00fcn halen yoksulluk h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\n
\n1)\u00a0<\/b>B\u00dcNYADOV, Ziya; Azerbaycan, Azerbaycan Devlet Ne\u015friyat\u0131, Elm, 1965, Azerbaycan Diline Terc\u00fcme, Azerne\u015fr, 1989 Bak\u0131, 1989, s. 12.
\n2)<\/b>\u00a0Emekli B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i G\u00fcnd\u00fcz Aktan, Kafkas Vakf\u0131 Genel Merkez konferans salonunda 12.01.2002 Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye’nin Kafkasya politikas\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131klar\u0131; http:\/\/www.kafkas.org.tr\/ajans\/2002\/ocak\/16.01.2002_konferans_gunduz_akt… ; 05 Nisan, 2010.
\n3)<\/b>\u00a0http:\/\/www.mfa.gov.az\/ ; 13.04.2010.
\n4)\u00a0<\/b>Dr. Ya\u015far KALAFAT; \u201cKafkasya\u2019daki Son Geli\u015fmeler ve T\u00fcrkiye \u00dczerine Etkileri\u201d; http:\/\/www.egm.gov.tr\/egitim\/dergi\/eskisayi\/39\/web\/makale\/Dr_Yasar_Kalafat.htm ; 05.04.2010.
\n5)\u00a0<\/b>Bkz. Zbigniew Brzezinski, B\u00fcy\u00fck Satran\u00e7 Tahtas\u0131\/Amerika’n\u0131n K\u00fcresel \u00dcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve Bunun Jeostratejik Gereklilikleri, \u0130NKILAP K\u0130TABEV\u0130 Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, \u0130stanbul, 2005.
\n6)<\/b>\u00a0\u00c7ar Petro\u2019nun vasiyetnamesi i\u00e7in bak\u0131n\u0131z ek 1.
\n7)\u00a0<\/b>Ayn\u0131 Konu\u015fmadan.
\n8)\u00a0<\/b>Kamil A\u011facan, \u201cABD\u2019nin Kafkasya Politikas\u0131\u201d, De\u011fi\u015fen D\u00fcnya D\u00fczeninde Kafkasya, Ed. Okan Ye\u015filot, Kitabevi Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, \u0130stanbul, 2005, s. 33.
\n9)<\/b>\u00a0I\u015f\u0131l YASA; “K\u00fcresel ve B\u00f6lgesel G\u00fc\u00e7lerin Kuzey Kafkasya B\u00f6lgesine Yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131”; 13\/05\/2008; http:\/\/www.bilgesam.com\/tr\/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=… 05.04.2010.
\n10)<\/b>\u00a0ABD\u2019deki Cumhuriyet Partisi, \u201cCumhuriyet\u00e7i Parti\u201d Bush Y\u00f6netiminin Irak\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda petrol merak\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok uzman bu y\u00f6netimi \u201cpetrolc\u00fcler\u201d olarak adland\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.
\n11)\u00a0<\/b>Elnur Hasan M\u0130KA\u0130L; A.g.m.
\n12)<\/b>\u00a0Elnur M\u0130KA\u0130L ; ” AZERBAYCAN “, \u0130.\u0130.B.F. , Sel\u00e7uk \u00dcniversitesi, 2000
\n13)<\/b>\u00a0Fehim Ta\u015ftekin; \u201cD\u00dcNYA G\u00dcNDEM\u0130: Kafkasya’daki sava\u015fla k\u0131r\u0131lan fay hatlar\u0131\u201d; http:\/\/www.dusuncegundem.com\/content\/view\/747\/198\/, 05.04.2010.
\n14)<\/b>\u00a02009 Human Rights Report: Russia; Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, 2009 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, March 11, 2010; http:\/\/www.state.gov\/g\/drl\/rls\/hrrpt\/2009\/eur\/136054.htm ; 13.04.2010.
\n15)<\/b>\u00a0Nihat Hal\u0131c\u0131, Ahmet G\u00fcnaltay; \u201cAnkara-Erivan yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fma yaratt\u0131\u201d, http:\/\/www.tumgazeteler.com\/?a=4993117 ; 13.04.2010.
\n16)<\/b>\u00a0http:\/\/www.boardturk.com\/cnn-turk\/quotankara-erivan-yakinlasmasi-ab-sure… ; 13.04.2010.
\n17)\u00a0<\/b>Remarks With Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu; Hillary Rodham Clinton, Secretary of State, Secretary of State, Treaty Room, Washington, DC; June 5, 2009; http:\/\/www.state.gov\/secretary\/rm\/2009a\/06\/124409.htm ; 13.04.2010.
\n18)\u00a0<\/b>Michael Martens; T\u00fcrkiye Ermenistan Yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 Tehlikede, http:\/\/www.kafkassam.com\/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=65… ; 13.04.2010.
\n19)<\/b>\u00a0Dr. Ali Asker; \u201cERMEN\u0130STAN A\u00c7ILIMI GER\u00c7EKLE\u015eEMED\u0130\u201d, http:\/\/www.21yyte.org\/tr\/yazi.aspx?ID=3248&kat=18 ; 13.04.2010.
\n20)<\/b>\u00a0http:\/\/www.ankarahaber.com\/news_detail.php?id=58905 ; 13.04.2010.
\n21)\u00a0<\/b>Kamil A\u011eACAN; Protokoller ve Ermenistan Ekonomisi, http:\/\/www.21yyte.org\/tr\/yazi.aspx?ID=3065&kat=18 ; 13.04.2010.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"