{"id":2283,"date":"2019-02-22T19:15:54","date_gmt":"2019-02-22T19:15:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/circassiancenter.com\/tr\/?p=2283"},"modified":"2019-02-22T19:15:54","modified_gmt":"2019-02-22T19:15:54","slug":"en-yeni-dunya-duzeni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/en-yeni-dunya-duzeni\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018EN YEN\u0130 D\u00dcNYA D\u00dcZEN\u0130\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sezai Babaku\u015f<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/span>10.06.2010<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ster be\u011fenin-destekleyin, ister k\u0131z\u0131n-kayg\u0131lan\u0131n, son d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 (diplomasisi) kab\u0131na s\u0131\u011fmaz oldu. Kom\u015fularla s\u0131f\u0131r ihtilaf slogan\u0131yla at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 vize kald\u0131rmalar, Kuzey Irak K\u00fcrt \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimi ile ili\u015fkiler, Rusya ile n\u00fckleer santral dahil dev enerji anla\u015fmalar\u0131, Brezilya\u2019y\u0131 yan\u0131na alarak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ABD\u2019nin gazab\u0131ndan kurtarma hamleleri vs. derken i\u015f Gazze y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u0130srail\u2019le boy \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc\u015fmeye kadar geldi. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 AKP H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin vizyonu ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 olarak alk\u0131\u015flayabiliriz ya da Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n \u0130slam soslu ideolojik h\u0131rs\u0131na ve D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Davuto\u011flu\u2019nun Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun Kissinger\u2019i olma hevesine ba\u011flay\u0131p hafife alabiliriz. Her iki durumda da eksik kal\u0131r\u0131z. Olup biteni anlayamay\u0131z, trene bo\u015f bo\u015f bakan o me\u015fhurun konumuna d\u00fc\u015feriz.<\/p>\n

Evet, son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok alametler olmakta. Ve daha da olacak gibi… Bunlar\u0131 sadece AKP vizyonuna ya da h\u0131rs\u0131na-hevesine ba\u011fl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayamay\u0131z. Bunlar yeniden de\u011fi\u015fen d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni ile ilgili. Bu, en yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni…<\/p>\n

\u015e\u00f6yle bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. Tarihten g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kim bilir ka\u00e7 \u2018yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u2019 kurulup y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130mparatorluklar \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndan buyana g\u00fc\u00e7 el de\u011fi\u015ftirdik\u00e7e d\u00fczen de yeniden kurulageldi. \u00d6nceleri 3-5 y\u00fczy\u0131lda bir de\u011fi\u015fen d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni giderek daha s\u0131k \u2018sil ba\u015ftan\u2019a u\u011frad\u0131. Ke\u015fifler \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 ve akabinde sanayi devrimi d\u00fcnyay\u0131 yaz-boz tahtas\u0131na \u00e7evirdi. Son y\u00fczy\u0131la bir bakal\u0131m; 1. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonunda \u201cyeni bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u201d kurulmu\u015ftu, yar\u0131m as\u0131r ge\u00e7meden 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 ilkini ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131ld\u0131; iki kutuplu d\u00fczene manivela oldu. K\u0131rk y\u0131l sonra (kutbun bir tanesi sizlere \u00f6m\u00fcr) tek kutuplu yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni m\u00fcjdelendi. G\u00fc\u00e7 tek elde topland\u0131 ve en sahici yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni olarak kutsand\u0131. Ne ki, yirmi y\u0131lda eskidi.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi \u00e7ok kutuplu, b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerin sahne almaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni var. 1990\u2019dan sonraki d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenini referans kabul eden kimi siyaset bilimciler ve stratejistler \u015fimdiki duruma \u2018ikinci yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u2019 ad\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Ben \u2018en yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u2019 demeyi tercih ediyorum.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Dedik ya, g\u00fcc\u00fcn da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenini de belirliyor. G\u00fc\u00e7, pek \u00e7ok unsurla tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. En \u00f6nemlisi ekonomik ve askeri g\u00fc\u00e7. Buna teknoloji \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fc, n\u00fcfus g\u00fcc\u00fc, stratejik konum g\u00fcc\u00fc, diplomas\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc vs. ekleniyor.<\/p>\n

2009 sonu itibariyle t\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n gayrisafi has\u0131las\u0131 (y\u0131lda \u00fcretilen mal ve hizmetlerin toplam de\u011feri) 58 trilyon dolar (ABD dolar\u0131) olarak hesaplan\u0131yor (bkz. IMF 2009 istatistikleri). 16.5 trilyon dolarla 27 \u00fclkeli Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ni saymazsak, 14.3 trilyon dolarla ABD a\u00e7\u0131k ara \u00f6nde. Japonya 5 trilyon dolarla ikinci, \u00c7in 4.9 trilyon dolarla \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc. Sonraki d\u00f6rt s\u0131ray\u0131 AB\u2019den Almanya (3.3 trilyon dolar), Fransa (2.7 trilyon), \u0130ngiltere (2.2 trilyon), \u0130talya (2.1 trilyon) al\u0131yor. Sekizinci s\u0131radaki Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n 1.6 trilyon, dokuzuncu s\u0131radaki AB \u00fcyesi \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n 1.5 trilyon dolar milli geliri var. Kanada 1.3 trilyon dolarla onuncu, Hindistan ve Rusya 1.2 trilyon dolarla on birinci ve on ikinci s\u0131rada. Sonra 1 trilyon-800 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda Avustralya, Meksika, G\u00fcney Kore ve Hollanda geliyor. T\u00fcrkiye 600 milyar dolarla on yedinci s\u0131rada.<\/p>\n

Elbette milli gelir rakamlar\u0131 Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hala ne denli ezici bir \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011fe sahip oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Buna askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc ve teknoloji \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc eklersek \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck daha da peki\u015fiyor. Ancak hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yirmi y\u0131l \u00f6ncesi gibi de\u011fil. Dengeler h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyor; yirmi y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin kimi fakir \u00fclkeleri (\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fcnya \u00fclkeleri) \u015fimdi Bat\u0131\u2019ya meydan okuyacak denli zenginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca teknolojide taklit edenden \u00fcretene do\u011fru yol almalar\u0131, asker g\u00fc\u00e7lerini peki\u015ftirmeleri bu \u00fclkelerin uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7e ortak olma isteklerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Halen d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kapsay\u0131c\u0131 uluslar\u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc olan Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler\u2019de, G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi Daimi \u00fcyesi s\u0131fat\u0131yla be\u015f \u00fclkenin (ABD, \u0130ngiltere, Fransa, \u00c7in ve Rusya) elinde toplanan yetki g\u00fcc\u00fcne itirazlar ba\u015flad\u0131; Hindistan, Japonya, Almanya ve Brezilya g\u00fc\u00e7e ortak olmak istiyor. Kuzey Kore\u2019den sonra \u0130ran ve ba\u015fka hevesliler n\u00fckleer g\u00fcce ortak olmak istiyor. Hindistan, Brezilya, \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye, Meksika b\u00f6lge politikalar\u0131nda daha fazla inisiyatif pe\u015finde.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fin \u00f6zeti, herkes paras\u0131 ve pazu g\u00fcc\u00fc kadar sayg\u0131 g\u00f6rmek, s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc dinletmek istiyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u2018y\u00f6neticileri sat\u0131n al, halklara h\u00fckmet, kaynaklar\u0131 s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u2019 denklemini bozan toplumsal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler ya\u015fand\u0131, ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma, \u00e7evre kirlili\u011fi gibi d\u00fcnyay\u0131 tehdit eden \u2018ortak d\u00fc\u015fman\u2019 alg\u0131s\u0131 da g\u00fcc\u00fcn payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorunlu hale getirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00d6yle anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ki art\u0131k her \u015fey Washington\u2019un dedi\u011fi ya da istedi\u011fi gibi gitmeyecek. Kral ve tebaas\u0131 yerine kral-soylular meclisi-tebaa d\u00fczenine ge\u00e7ilecek. Kral uzun s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015fmeyecek gibi. \u015eimdilik m\u00fccadele soylular meclisinde yer kapmak \u00fczerine. Meclis 7\u2019den 9\u2019a, 13\u2019e, 20\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. \u015eimdi 20\u2019nin i\u00e7indekiler yerlerini sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmak, d\u0131\u015far\u0131da kalm\u0131\u015f olanlar ise bu 20\u2019de yer kapmak ya da meclisin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele ediyor. Kimine g\u00f6re 30-40 y\u0131l sonra Kral\u2019\u0131n da taht\u0131 sallanacak. Medyumlar 2050\u2019den itibaren \u00e7ekik g\u00f6zl\u00fc bir Kral\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011finden s\u00f6z ediyor (!).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomik performans\u0131yla bu meclisin 17. s\u0131ras\u0131nda yer edinmi\u015f gibi. Eh askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc de (hi\u00e7 de\u011filse asker say\u0131s\u0131 itibariyle) yabana at\u0131l\u0131r gibi de\u011fil. N\u00fcfus g\u00fcc\u00fc de ma\u015fallah. Stratejik konum g\u00fcc\u00fc eskisi gibi de\u011fil, tapunu kiraya ver ge\u00e7inip git devri \u00e7oktan bitti. En b\u00fcy\u00fck eksi\u011fi (zaaf\u0131) ise teknoloji \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fc. Hem sava\u015f hem \u00fcretim teknolojisi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Kendi \u00fcretti\u011finde ise hala taklitten (\u00fcstelik k\u00f6t\u00fc taklitten) ileri gidemedi. \u00d6\u011fle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki kolay da olmayacak.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte burda, ister h\u0131rs-heves dersiniz ister vizyon, AKP\u2019nin etkisi devreye giriyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesel rol\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek istiyor. 600 milyar dolara denk bir rol pe\u015finde. Sanki, Bat\u0131\u2019dan bulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sayg\u0131y\u0131 Ortado\u011fu\u2019da edinme \u00e7abas\u0131nda. Ya da, Ortado\u011fu \u00fczerinden Bat\u0131\u2019da sayg\u0131 edinme yolunda. Do\u011fru bir yol mu? G\u00f6rece\u011fiz. En \u00e7ok sorgulanan \u0130ran-Hamas angajmanlar\u0131. \u0130srail\u2019le dala\u015f da tuzu biberi. Eksen kaymas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 buradan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Klasik muhafazakar ve demokrat siyaset\u00e7iler d\u0131\u015f politikay\u0131 satranca benzetir, oyunu hamle hesaplar\u0131 \u00fczerine kurarlar. Yeni muhafazakarlar ve liberaller ise d\u0131\u015f politikan\u0131n poker gibi oynanmas\u0131ndan yanad\u0131r, oyunu riskler ve f\u0131rsatlar \u00fczerine kurarlar. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki AKP pokeri tercih ediyor. Pokerde arada bir bl\u00f6f yap\u0131p kazanabilir, rakibini \u2018rest\u2019le saf d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakabilirsin. Tek \u015fart\u0131, oyunun ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 iyi takip etmek ve bl\u00f6f\u00fc zaman\u0131nda yapmak. Aksi halde duvara toslar, her \u015feyini masada b\u0131rakabilirsin. Bu genel kurald\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130srail\u2019le poker oynuyorsan iki kat dikkatli olmal\u0131s\u0131n. Zira Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun en iyi ve en h\u0131zl\u0131 pokercisi. \u2018Rest\u2019 \u00e7ekerken \u2018solt\u2019 yememen laz\u0131m. Poker, heyecan\u0131 ve riski y\u00fcksek bir oyundur. Kendini kapt\u0131r\u0131p Rus ruletine \u00e7evirmemeli.<\/p>\n

Velhas\u0131l,<\/p>\n

<\/b>\u2018En yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u2019 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 kadar riskleri de bol bir d\u00fczen. Konumuna ve g\u00fcc\u00fcne uygun rol\u00fc \u00fcstlenmek gerekiyor. Ne eksik, ne fazla. Aksi halde… M\u00fcflis kumarbaz olmay\u0131 kim ister.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sezai Babakuş 10.06.2010 İster beğenin-destekleyin, ister kızın-kaygılanın, son dönemde Türkiye’nin dış politikası (diplomasisi) kabına sığmaz oldu. Komşularla sıfır ihtilaf sloganıyla atılan adımlar, karşılıklı vize kaldırmalar, Kuzey Irak Kürt Özerk Yönetimi ile ilişkiler, Rusya ile nükleer santral dahil dev enerji anlaşmaları, Brezilya’yı yanına alarak İran’ı ABD’nin gazabından kurtarma hamleleri vs. derken iş Gazze yüzünden İsrail’le boy […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[100],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-yazarlar-sezai-babakus","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2283"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2284,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2283\/revisions\/2284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.circassiancenter.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}